Does prey availability influence the detection of Dinophysis spp. by the imaging FlowCytobot?

The Imaging FlowCytobot (IFCB) is a field-deployable imaging-in-flow cytometer that is increasingly being used to monitor harmful algae. The IFCB acquires images of suspended particles based on their chlorophyll-a fluorescence and/or the amount of light they scatter (side scattering). The present study hypothesized that fluorescence-based image acquisition would undercount Dinophysis spp., a genus of non-constitutive mixotrophs, when prey is limited. This is because Dinophysis spp. acquire plastids via ingestion of their ciliate prey Mesodinium spp., and lose photosynthetic capacity and autofluorescence in the absence of prey. Even small blooms of Dinophysis spp. can be highly toxic and result in diarrhetic shellfish poisoning (DSP), highlighting the importance of accurately detecting low abundances. To explore this, laboratory experiments were conducted to determine optimal IFCB settings for a fed culture of Dinophysis acuminata, and an existing time series of IFCB observations collected in Puget Sound (Washington, U.S.A) was used to compare Dinophysis spp. abundance estimates from samples triggered via side scattering versus fluorescence in relation to Mesodinium spp. abundance. This study introduces a quantitative approach for optimizing the detection of target harmful algae which can be repeated across multiple IFCBs and demonstrates the effects of IFCB calibration on Dinophysis spp. detection. The laboratory experiments showed that IFCB settings for fluorescence-based image acquisition need to be fairly sensitive to accurately detect D. acuminata cells. A poorly calibrated IFCB can miss a significant proportion of D. acuminata abundance whatever the method used to trigger the image acquisition. Field results demonstrated that the physiological status of Dinophysis spp. can influence their detection by the IFCB when triggering on fluorescence. This was observed during a 7-day period when the IFCB failed to detect Dinophysis spp. cells when triggering on fluorescence while cells were still detected using the side scattering triggering method as well as observed by microscopy. During this period, Mesodinium spp. was not detected, IFCB-derived autofluorescence level of individual cells of Dinophysis spp. was low, and less than 50 % of Dinophysis spp. cells exhibited autofluorescence under the microscope. Together, this indicates that the unique feeding ecology of Dinophysis spp. may affect their detection by the IFCB when cells are starved.

A survey of Dinophysis spp. and their potential to cause diarrhetic shellfish poisoning in coastal waters of the United States.

Multiple species of the genus Dinophysis produce diarrhetic shellfish toxins (okadaic acid and Dinophysis toxins, OA/DTXs analogs) and/or pectenotoxins (PTXs). Only since 2008 have DSP events (illnesses and/or shellfish harvesting closures) become recognized as a threat to human health in the United States. This study characterized 20 strains representing five species of Dinophysis spp. isolated from three US coastal regions that have experienced DSP events: the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Pacific Northwest. Using a combination of morphometric and DNA-based evidence, seven Northeast/Mid-Atlantic isolates and four Pacific Northwest isolates were classified as D. acuminata, a total of four isolates from two coasts were classified as D. norvegica, two isolates from the Pacific Northwest coast were identified as D. fortii, and three isolates from the Gulf of Mexico were identified as D. ovum and D. caudata. Toxin profiles of D. acuminata and D. norvegica varied by their geographical origin within the United States. Cross-regional comparison of toxin profiles was not possible with the other three species; however, within each region, distinct species-conserved profiles for isolates of D. fortii, D. ovum, and D. caudata were observed. Historical and recent data from various State and Tribal monitoring programs were compiled and compared, including maximum recorded cell abundances of Dinophysis spp., maximum concentrations of OA/DTXs recorded in commercial shellfish species, and durations of harvesting closures, to provide perspective regarding potential for DSP impacts to regional public health and shellfish industry.

The value of monitoring in efficiently and adaptively managing biotoxin contamination in marine fisheries.

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) can produce biotoxins that accumulate in seafood species targeted by commercial, recreational, and subsistence fisheries and pose an increasing risk to public health as well as fisher livelihoods, recreational opportunities, and food security. Designing biotoxin monitoring and management programs that protect public health with minimal impacts to the fishing communities that underpin coastal livelihoods and food systems is critically important, especially in regions with worsening HABs due to climate change. This study reviews the history of domoic acid monitoring and management in the highly lucrative U.S. West Coast Dungeness crab fishery and highlights three changes made to these programs that efficiently and adaptively manage mounting HAB risk: (1) expanded spatial-temporal frequency of monitoring; (2) delineation of clear management zones; and (3) authorization of evisceration orders as a strategy to mitigate economic impacts. Simulation models grounded in historical data were used to measure the value of monitoring information in facilitating efficient domoic acid management. Power analysis confirmed that surveys sampling 6 crabs (the current protocol) have high power to correctly diagnose contamination levels and recommend appropriate management actions. Across a range of contamination scenarios, increasing the spatial-temporal frequency of monitoring allowed management to respond more quickly to changing toxin levels and to protect public health with the least impact on fishing opportunities. These results highlight the powerful yet underutilized role of simulation testing and power analysis in designing efficient biotoxin monitoring programs, demonstrating the credibility of these programs to stakeholders, and justifying their expense to policymakers.

Climate shock effects and mediation in fisheries.

Climate shocks can reorganize the social-ecological linkages in food-producing communities, leading to a sudden loss of key products in food systems. The extent and persistence of this reorganization are difficult to observe and summarize, but are critical aspects of predicting and rapidly assessing community vulnerability to extreme events. We apply network analysis to evaluate the impact of a climate shock-an unprecedented marine heatwave-on patterns of resource use in California fishing communities, which were severely affected through closures of the Dungeness crab fishery. The climate shock significantly modified flows of users between fishery resources during the closures. These modifications were predicted by pre-shock patterns of resource use and were associated with three strategies used by fishing community member vessels to respond to the closures: temporary exit from the food system, spillover of effort from the Dungeness crab fishery into other fisheries, and spatial shifts in where crab were landed. Regional differences in resource use patterns and vessel-level responses highlighted the Dungeness crab fishery as a seasonal "gilded trap" for northern California fishing communities. We also detected disparities in climate shock response based on vessel size, with larger vessels more likely to display spatial mobility. Our study demonstrates the importance of highly connected and decentralized networks of resource use in reducing the vulnerability of human communities to climate shocks.

Harmful algal blooms and coastal communities: Socioeconomic impacts and actions taken to cope with the 2015 U.S. West Coast domoic acid event.

The 2015 U.S. West Coast domoic acid event was caused by a massive harmful algal bloom (HAB) that consisted mostly of the diatom Pseudo-nitzschia australis. It was unprecedented in its toxicity and geographic extent and resulted in extended and widespread closures of the lucrative commercial Dungeness crab and popular recreational razor clam fisheries. The fishery closures led to federal fisheries disaster declarations and generated an economic shock for coastal communities that depend on access to these marine resources. This study reports on the socioeconomic impacts of the 2015 HAB across 16 fishing communities on the U.S. West Coast using primary survey data. The survey instrument, deployed in the summer of 2017, collected information on sociodemographic and economic factors hypothesized to confer resilience or vulnerability to HABs, data quantifying individual impacts, and the coping and adaptive actions taken by individuals to deal with the event. The vast majority of survey participants (84%) were negatively impacted by the 2015 HAB, but individuals employed in fishing-related occupations experienced greater financial, emotional, and sociocultural impacts than those employed in other sectors. Further, those employed in fishing-related occupations were less likely to recover financial losses suffered as a result of the event. This study identifies the pathways through which HABs affect fishery-dependent and fishery-associated sectors of U.S. West Coast communities. The understanding gained can help inform efforts to prepare for future HABs, mitigate their socioeconomic impacts, and aid recovery.

Examining harmful algal blooms through a disaster risk management lens: A case study of the 2015 U.S. West Coast domoic acid event.

The human dimensions of harmful algal blooms (HABs) are becoming increasingly apparent as they grow in frequency and magnitude in some regions of the world under changing ocean conditions. One such region is the U.S. West Coast, where HABs of toxigenic species of Pseudo-nitzschia have been found to coincide with or closely follow periods of warming. In 2015, the region experienced a massive HAB of Pseudo-nitzschia that was associated with the 2014-16 Northeast Pacific marine heatwave. The HAB event delayed the opening of the lucrative commercial Dungeness crab fishery for up to 5 months and closed the popular recreational razor clam fishery, resulting in fishery failures and disaster declarations and causing significant sociocultural and economic impacts to coastal communities. Here, management actions are examined that were taken by federal and state government agencies and responses of coastal residents to this extreme HAB event using a disaster risk management framework consisting of four phases: 1) prediction and early warning, 2) event response, 3) recovery and reconstruction, and 4) mitigation and prevention. Clear differences in management actions at the state level were evident in California, Oregon, and Washington during every phase, producing vastly different perceptions of management by coastal residents. A history of trusted relationships and coordination among agencies and with the fishing industry in Washington State was associated with more transparent and accepted management responses. The examination found that additional education, outreach, and trust-building exercises would provide benefits to communities affected by extreme HAB events. Our findings contribute to an understanding of climate change adaptation in coastal communities dependent on fishery resources.

Pelagic harmful algal blooms and climate change: Lessons from nature's experiments with extremes.

Time series now have sufficient duration to determine harmful algal bloom (HAB) responses to changing climate conditions, including warming, stratification intensity, freshwater inputs and natural patterns of climate variability, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Against the context of time series, such as those available from phytoplankton monitoring, dinoflagellate cyst records, the Continuous Plankton Recorder surveys, and shellfish toxin records, it is possible to identify extreme events that are significant departures from long-term means. Extreme weather events can mimic future climate conditions and provide a "dress rehearsal" for understanding future frequency, intensity and geographic extent of HABs. Three case studies of extreme HAB events are described in detail to explore the drivers and impacts of these oceanic outliers that may become more common in the future. One example is the chain-forming diatom of the genus Pseudo-nitzschia in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and its response to the 2014-16 northeast Pacific marine heat wave. The other two case studies are pelagic flagellates. Highly potent Alexandrium catenella group 1 dinoflagellate blooms (up to 150 mg/kg PST in mussels; 4 human poisonings) during 2012-17 created havoc for the seafood industry in Tasmania, south-eastern Australia, in a poorly monitored area where such problems were previously unknown. Early evidence suggests that changes in water column stratification during the cold winter-spring season are driving new blooms caused by a previously cryptic species. An expansion of Pseudochattonella cf. verruculosa to the south and A. catenella to the north over the past several years resulted in the convergence of both species to cause the most catastrophic event in the history of the Chilean aquaculture in the austral summer of 2016. Together, these two massive blooms were colloquially known as the "Godzilla-Red tide event", resulting in the largest fish farm mortality ever recorded worldwide, equivalent to an export loss of USD$800 million which when combined with shellfish toxicity, resulted in major social unrest and rioting. Both blooms were linked to the strong El Niño event and the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode, the latter an indicator of anthropogenic climate change in the southeastern Pacific region. For each of these three examples, representing recent catastrophic events in geographically distinct regions, additional targeted monitoring was employed to improve the understanding of the climate drivers and mechanisms that gave rise to the event and to document the societal response. Scientists must be poised to study future extreme HAB events as these natural experiments provide unique opportunities to define and test multifactorial drivers of blooms.

Cyst-forming dinoflagellates in a warming climate.

Many phytoplankton species, including many harmful algal bloom (HAB) species, survive long periods between blooms through formation of benthic resting stages. Because they are crucial to the persistence of these species and the initiation of new blooms, the physiology of benthic stages must be considered to accurately predict responses to climate warming and associated environmental changes. The benthic stages of dinoflagellates, called resting cysts, germinate in response to the combination of favorable temperature, oxygen-availability, and release from dormancy. The latter is a mechanism that prevents germination even when oxygen and temperature conditions are favorable. Here, evidence of temperature-mediated control of dormancy duration from the dinoflagellates Alexandrium catenella and Pyrodinium bahamense-two HAB species that cause paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP)-is reviewed and presented alongside new evidence of complementary, temperature-based control of cyst quiescence (the state in which cysts germinate on exposure to favorable conditions). Interaction of the two temperature-based mechanisms with climate is explored through a simple model parameterized using results from recent experiments with A. catenella. Simulations demonstrate the importance of seasonal temperature cycles for the synchronization of cysts' release from dormancy and are consistent with biogeography-based inferences that A. catenella is more tolerant of warming in habitats that experience a larger range of seasonal temperature variation (i.e., have higher temperature seasonality). Temperature seasonality is much greater in shallow, long-residence time habitats than in deep, open-water ones. As warming shifts species' ranges, cyst beds may persist longer in more seasonally variable, shallow inshore habitats than in deep offshore ones, promoting HABs that are more localized and commence earlier each year. Recent field investigations of A. catenella also point to the importance of new cyst formation as a factor triggering bloom termination through mass sexual induction. In areas where temperature seasonality restricts the flux of new swimming cells (germlings) to narrow temporal windows, warming is unlikely to promote longer and more intense HAB impacts-even when water column conditions would otherwise promote prolonged bloom development. Many species likely have a strong drive to sexually differentiate and produce new cysts once concentrations reach levels that are conducive to new cyst formation. This phenomenon can impose a limit to bloom intensification and suggests an important role for cyst bed quiescence in determining the duration of HAB risk periods.

Modeling harmful algal blooms in a changing climate.

This review assesses harmful algal bloom (HAB) modeling in the context of climate change, examining modeling methodologies that are currently being used, approaches for representing climate processes, and time scales of HAB model projections. Statistical models are most commonly used for near-term HAB forecasting and resource management, but statistical models are not well suited for longer-term projections as forcing conditions diverge from past observations. Process-based models are more complex, difficult to parameterize, and require extensive calibration, but can mechanistically project HAB response under changing forcing conditions. Nevertheless, process-based models remain prone to failure if key processes emerge with climate change that were not identified in model development based on historical observations. We review recent studies on modeling HABs and their response to climate change, and the various statistical and process-based approaches used to link global climate model projections and potential HAB response. We also make several recommendations for how the field can move forward: 1) use process-based models to explicitly represent key physical and biological factors in HAB development, including evaluating HAB response to climate change in the context of the broader ecosystem; 2) quantify and convey model uncertainty using ensemble approaches and scenario planning; 3) use robust approaches to downscale global climate model results to the coastal regions that are most impacted by HABs; and 4) evaluate HAB models with long-term observations, which are critical for assessing long-term trends associated with climate change and far too limited in extent.

Economic and sociocultural impacts of fisheries closures in two fishing-dependent communities following the massive 2015 U.S. West Coast harmful algal bloom.

In the spring of 2015, a massive harmful algal bloom (HAB) of the toxin-producing diatom Pseudo-nitzschia occurred on the U.S. West Coast, resulting in the largest recorded outbreak of the toxin domoic acid and causing fisheries closures. Closures extended into 2016 and generated an economic shock for coastal fishing communities. This study examines the economic and sociocultural impacts of the Dungeness crab and razor clam fisheries closures on two fishing-dependent communities. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 36 community members from two communities impacted by the event - Crescent City, California and Long Beach, Washington. Interviewees included those involved in the fishing, hospitality, and retail industries, local government officials, recreational harvesters, and others. Interviews probed aspects of resilience in economic, social, institutional, and physical domains, based on the contention that community resilience will influence the communities' ability to withstand HAB events. Dimensions of vulnerability were also explored, encompassing sensitivity of the communities to HAB events and their adaptive capacity. Common themes that emerged from the interview responses indicate that economic hardships extended beyond fishing-related operations and permeated through other sectors, particularly the hospitality industry. Significant barriers to accessing financial and employment assistance during extended fisheries closures were identified, particularly for fishers. Long-held traditions surrounding crab and shellfish harvest and consumption were disrupted, threatening the cultural identities of the affected communities. Community members expressed a desire for clearer, more thorough, and more rapid dissemination of information regarding the management of fisheries closures and the health risks associated with HAB toxins. The likelihood of intensifying HABs under climate change heightens the need for actions to increase the resilience of fishing communities to the economic and sociocultural impacts caused by HAB-related fisheries closures.

Effects of temperature and salinity on the growth of Alexandrium (Dinophyceae) isolates from the Salish Sea.

Toxin-producing blooms of dinoflagellates in the genus Alexandrium have plagued the inhabitants of the Salish Sea for centuries. Yet the environmental conditions that promote accelerated growth of this organism, a producer of paralytic shellfish toxins, is lacking. This study quantitatively determined the growth response of two Alexandrium isolates to a range of temperatures and salinities, factors that will strongly respond to future climate change scenarios. An empirical equation, derived from observed growth rates describing the temperature and salinity dependence of growth, was used to hindcast bloom risk. Hindcasting was achieved by comparing predicted growth rates, calculated from in situ temperature and salinity data from Quartermaster Harbor, with corresponding Alexandrium cell counts and shellfish toxin data. The greatest bloom risk, defined at µ >0.25 d(-1) , generally occurred from April through November annually; however, growth rates rarely fell below 0.10 d(-1) . Except for a few occasions, Alexandrium cells were only observed during the periods of highest bloom risk and paralytic shellfish toxins above the regulatory limit always fell within the periods of predicted bloom occurrence. While acknowledging that Alexandrium growth rates are affected by other abiotic and biotic factors, such as grazing pressure and nutrient availability, the use of this empirical growth function to predict higher risk time frames for blooms and toxic shellfish within the Salish Sea provides the groundwork for a more comprehensive biological model of Alexandrium bloom dynamics in the region and will enhance our ability to forecast blooms in the Salish Sea under future climate change scenarios.

Marine harmful algal blooms, human health and wellbeing: challenges and opportunities in the 21st century.

Microalgal blooms are a natural part of the seasonal cycle of photosynthetic organisms in marine ecosystems. They are key components of the structure and dynamics of the oceans and thus sustain the benefits that humans obtain from these aquatic environments. However, some microalgal blooms can cause harm to humans and other organisms. These harmful algal blooms (HABs) have direct impacts on human health and negative influences on human wellbeing, mainly through their consequences to coastal ecosystem services (fisheries, tourism and recreation) and other marine organisms and environments. HABs are natural phenomena, but these events can be favoured by anthropogenic pressures in coastal areas. Global warming and associated changes in the oceans could affect HAB occurrences and toxicity as well, although forecasting the possible trends is still speculative and requires intensive multidisciplinary research. At the beginning of the 21st century, with expanding human populations, particularly in coastal and developing countries, mitigating HABs impacts on human health and wellbeing is becoming a more pressing public health need. The available tools to address this global challenge include maintaining intensive, multidisciplinary and collaborative scientific research, and strengthening the coordination with stakeholders, policymakers and the general public. Here we provide an overview of different aspects of the HABs phenomena, an important element of the intrinsic links between oceans and human health and wellbeing.

Factors regulating excystment of Alexandrium in Puget Sound, WA, USA.

Factors regulating excystment of a toxic dinoflagellate in the genus Alexandrium were investigated in cysts from Puget Sound, Washington State, USA. Experiments were carried out in the laboratory using cysts collected from benthic seedbeds to determine if excystment is controlled by internal or environmental factors. The results suggest that the timing of germination is not tightly controlled by an endogenous clock, though there is a suggestion of a cyclical pattern. This was explored using cysts that had been stored under cold (4 °C), anoxic conditions in the dark and then incubated for 6 weeks at constant favorable environmental conditions. Excystment occurred during all months of the year, with variable excystment success ranging from 31-90%. When cysts were isolated directly from freshly collected sediments every month and incubated at the in situ bottom water temperature, a seasonal pattern in excystment was observed that was independent of temperature. This pattern may be consistent with secondary dormancy, an externally modulated pattern that prevents excystment during periods that are not favorable for sustained vegetative growth. However, observation over more annual cycles is required and the duration of the mandatory dormancy period of these cysts must be determined before the seasonality of germination can be fully characterized in Alexandrium from Puget Sound. Both temperature and light were found to be important environmental factors regulating excystment, with the highest rates of excystment observed for the warmest temperature treatment (20 °C) and in the light.

Present-day and future climate pathways affecting Alexandrium blooms in Puget Sound, WA, USA.

This study uses a mechanistic modeling approach to evaluate the effects of various climate pathways on the proliferative phase of the toxin-producing dinoflagellate Alexandrium in Puget Sound, WA, USA. Experimentally derived Alexandrium growth responses to temperature and salinity are combined with simulations of the regional climate and Salish Sea hydrology to investigate future changes in the timing, duration, and extent of blooms. Coarse-grid (100-200km) global climate model ensemble simulations of the SRES A1B emissions scenario were regionally downscaled to a 12-km grid using the Weather Research and Forecasting model for the period 1969-2069. These results were used to: (1) analyze the future potential changes and variability of coastal upwelling winds, and (2) provide forcing fields to a Regional Ocean Model System used to simulate the circulation of the Salish Sea, including Puget Sound, and the coastal ocean. By comparing circa-1990 and circa-2050 climate scenarios for the environmental conditions that promote Alexandrium blooms, we disentangle the effects of three climate pathways: (1) increased local atmospheric heating, (2) changing riverflow magnitude and timing, and (3) changing ocean inputs associated with changes in upwelling-favorable winds. Future warmer sea surface temperatures in Puget Sound from increased local atmospheric heating increase the maximum growth rates that can be attained by Alexandrium during the bloom season as well as the number of days with conditions that are favorable for bloom development. This could lead to 30 more days a year with bloom-favorable conditions by 2050. In contrast, changes in surface salinity arising from changes in the timing of riverflow have a negligible effect on Alexandrium growth rates, and the behavior of the coastal inputs in the simulations suggests that changes in local upwelling will not have major effects on sea surface temperature or salinity or Alexandrium growth rates in Puget Sound.

An Alexandrium Spp. Cyst Record from Sequim Bay, Washington State, USA, and its Relation to Past Climate Variability(1).

Since the 1970s, Puget Sound, Washington State, USA, has experienced an increase in detections of paralytic shellfish toxins (PSTs) in shellfish due to blooms of the harmful dinoflagellate Alexandrium. Natural patterns of climate variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and changes in local environmental factors, such as sea surface temperature (SST) and air temperature, have been linked to the observed increase in PSTs. However, the lack of observations of PSTs in shellfish prior to the 1950s has inhibited statistical assessments of longer-term trends in climate and environmental conditions on Alexandrium blooms. After a bloom, Alexandrium cells can enter a dormant cyst stage, which settles on the seafloor and then becomes entrained into the sedimentary record. In this study, we created a record of Alexandrium spp. cysts from a sediment core obtained from Sequim Bay, Puget Sound. Cyst abundances ranged from 0 to 400 cysts · cm(-3) and were detected down-core to a depth of 100 cm, indicating that Alexandrium has been present in Sequim Bay since at least the late 1800s. The cyst record allowed us to statistically examine relationships with available environmental parameters over the past century. Local air temperature and sea surface temperature were positively and significantly correlated with cyst abundances from the late 1800s to 2005; no significant relationship was found between PDO and cyst abundances. This finding suggests that local environmental variations more strongly influence Alexandrium population dynamics in Puget Sound when compared to large-scale changes.

Centers for Oceans and Human Health: a unified approach to the challenge of harmful algal blooms.

BACKGROUND: Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are one focus of the national research initiatives on Oceans and Human Health (OHH) at NIEHS, NOAA and NSF. All of the OHH Centers, from the east coast to Hawaii, include one or more research projects devoted to studying HAB problems and their relationship to human health. The research shares common goals for understanding, monitoring and predicting HAB events to protect and improve human health: understanding the basic biology of the organisms; identifying how chemistry, hydrography and genetic diversity influence blooms; developing analytical methods and sensors for cells and toxins; understanding health effects of toxin exposure; and developing conceptual, empirical and numerical models of bloom dynamics. RESULTS: In the past several years, there has been significant progress toward all of the common goals. Several studies have elucidated the effects of environmental conditions and genetic heterogeneity on bloom dynamics. New methods have been developed or implemented for the detection of HAB cells and toxins, including genetic assays for Pseudo-nitzschia and Microcystis, and a biosensor for domoic acid. There have been advances in predictive models of blooms, most notably for the toxic dinoflagellates Alexandrium and Karenia. Other work is focused on the future, studying the ways in which climate change may affect HAB incidence, and assessing the threat from emerging HABs and toxins, such as the cyanobacterial neurotoxin beta-N-methylamino-L-alanine. CONCLUSION: Along the way, many challenges have been encountered that are common to the OHH Centers and also echo those of the wider HAB community. Long-term field data and basic biological information are needed to develop accurate models. Sensor development is hindered by the lack of simple and rapid assays for algal cells and especially toxins. It is also critical to adequately understand the human health effects of HAB toxins. Currently, we understand best the effects of acute toxicity, but almost nothing is known about the effects of chronic, subacute toxin exposure. The OHH initiatives have brought scientists together to work collectively on HAB issues, within and across regions. The successes that have been achieved highlight the value of collaboration and cooperation across disciplines, if we are to continue to advance our understanding of HABs and their relationship to human health.

Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health.

Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes to vertical mixing, upwelling, precipitation, and evaporation patterns. The potential consequences of these changes for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have received relatively little attention and are not well understood. Given the apparent increase in HABs around the world and the potential for greater problems as a result of climate change and ocean acidification, substantial research is needed to evaluate the direct and indirect associations between HABs, climate change, ocean acidification, and human health. This research will require a multidisciplinary approach utilizing expertise in climatology, oceanography, biology, epidemiology, and other disciplines. We review the interactions between selected patterns of large-scale climate variability and climate change, oceanic conditions, and harmful algae.

Environmental controls, oceanography and population dynamics of pathogens and harmful algal blooms: connecting sources to human exposure.

Coupled physical-biological models are capable of linking the complex interactions between environmental factors and physical hydrodynamics to simulate the growth, toxicity and transport of infectious pathogens and harmful algal blooms (HABs). Such simulations can be used to assess and predict the impact of pathogens and HABs on human health. Given the widespread and increasing reliance of coastal communities on aquatic systems for drinking water, seafood and recreation, such predictions are critical for making informed resource management decisions. Here we identify three challenges to making this connection between pathogens/HABs and human health: predicting concentrations and toxicity; identifying the spatial and temporal scales of population and ecosystem interactions; and applying the understanding of population dynamics of pathogens/HABs to management strategies. We elaborate on the need to meet each of these challenges, describe how modeling approaches can be used and discuss strategies for moving forward in addressing these challenges.